Now that I'm back at a computer let me wish all my readers, trawlers and accidental visitors a very happy New Year and indeed a new decade. I know technically,
technically, the decade should start next year but I find it incredibly difficult to care. Like, I would hope, most people in this country I much prefer to think of this as the start to a new decade and more importantly the end to the last one. A clean break if you will. God knows we need one.
Indeed as I walked home from the train station but a few hours ago it was difficult not to feel at least a little bit buoyant. The sun was blinding in the otherwise near perfect blue sky. The dusting of snow had not yet begun to melt resulting in a brisk walk being accompanied by a pleasant crisp crunching sound. The streets were nearly empty and families were visible or audible behind their bay windows, clearing their drives or playing in the garden. Still there was already an almost tangible sense that it wouldn't last. Already there was the feeling that all to soon the sun would retreat and the clouds return. All too soon the stride and crisp crunching sound will be replaced by the trudge and the dull squelch in the dirt and slush. All to soon the parents will return to work and the children to school.
Still these things are not what are really causing this feeling. They are more indicative of it. David Cameron has already dubbed it the Year for Change. He seems to be in the same initial stages of buoyant optimism if
this article (with a fantastic headline) and the above full page advert in the Times (and possibly other papers) is to go by.
However I'm sure he too, like me, will soon begin to feel a just a little bit pessimistic and sceptical. Certainly it is the year that is likely to see a change of government and Cameron being granted his wish and a new set of house keys. However that will only be the start. As is pointed out in this week's Spectator, it was not 1st January 2000 that heralded the start of the last decade. Nor was it, as the
technically brigade would have us believe, 1st January 2001. It was 11th September 2001. That's a pretty depressing prospect but there is undeniably something in it. It of course immediately caused the Afghanistan war which has managed to continue beyond it's own decade and into this new one. However it's effects can hardly be ignored when considering the causes for the Iraq invasion. Beyond that it has shaped the way so many things were conducted in the "noughties" (cringe). International relations, policing and surveillance all undoubtedly changed in their approach but even that is not the end of it. Political spin was shaped and changed by it. So was politics itself and the methods of it's application. So was the media's attitude and the so called climate of fear. The way we travel, consider strangers and view backpacks or "unattended packages" have all changed because of that one event. The same can be said of something in almost every walk of life and every action.
I can only sincerely hope that nothing like the attacks on the twin towers ever happens again, certainly not in the next decade. It's undoubtedly going to be hard enough. However I think one similarity may continue. One or maybe a couple of events will come to characterise the whole decade. Cameron clearly wants this to be his election. Maybe it will be but, as huge an occasion as that will be after 13 years of mismanagement, it will only be the beginning. It would seem that, if the last decade may be characterised (sadly) as the decade of terror and war, then this new one will have to be the decade of austerity. A mammoth task awaits Cameron if he wins and he probably knows that better than anyone else. There will hopefully be good times. The recession will hopefully end, England will hopefully win the world cup, The 2012 Olympics will hopefully be a rousing success (both from the perspective of host and from our medal haul), Spurs will hopefully pick up a few bits of silverware, the servicemen will hopefully return from Afghanistan and not be redeployed to any other major conflict, the EU will hopefully fragment, we will hopefully find a long term solution to the earth's energy needs. I could go on but none of these are certain. One thing is: tough times are ahead.
This is not to sound to dismal. While austerity may be the name of the game for the next few years it should be seen as a good thing. Much like a child saving up pocket money for the toy they can't live without it will be difficult, especially at first. The solitary 50p in the piggybank is depressing. You weep that you're never going to get the toy. But then more money joins it and soon the pile swells. The anticipation is as much fun as the toy itself and probably in the long run employs more of your time. The first steps are unbearably difficult but it gets easier with each one and with each one the prize only gets sweeter. Labour did it the wrong way round. They tried to give us everything now and make us happy then let the pain come when the reward (if there ever was one) was already fading from our minds. Far better to endure the difficulties when the reward is still tantalising existent but out of reach than to suffer them with it already gone.
Anything beyond our current means results in a choice: buy now and pay later or wait until it can be afforded. I, like most of my conservative fellows favour the latter. Endure now because when you finally hold that toy in your hands it will be so much better than if you had bought, broke and discarded it and then had to endure a month of no sweets without the excitement and anticipation that accompanies it if you wait.
The message I am unsuccessfully trying to extricate from misguided childhood memories is that it may be difficult but it is by far the better option to save and spend and not the other way round. Instead of a Lego set the "toy" will hopefully be a state sector properly reigned in and purged of quangocrattery, a rejuvenated and productive economy and thoughts of the long term returning to Westminster. I'm sure opponents will sneer at my naivety in thinking Cameron can achieve this but I remain cautiously optimistic. He may not be perfect. He may not be my first choice. He may not even win. But he is the best of the available options. For all Labour's attempted smears on his privileged background he does at least, unlike the mud slingers, seem to know the value of the first and the last 50p in the pile and the joy that can come when you finally get to tear off that packaging and hold your treasured possession in your hand knowing that you, and you alone, have earnt it.
Happy New Year!
I am not a scientist and could not with any certainty make a case one way or the other (although I would concede that there seems to be more evidence in favour than against the theory).
